Reform Options for Brazil’s Tobacco Special Tax

This Policy Note was written by Universidade Católica Brasília (UCB) in Brazil. The policy note assesses the impact of different tobacco tax reform scenarios, including the reform proposed in  Constitutional Amendment Bill 45/2019 and the Bill PL3887-2020. The findings show that setting the Tobacco Special Tax (TST) to match current total revenue-collection levels would result in a decrease in revenue collection in some Brazilian states, as well as an increase in cigarette consumption. Alternatively, setting the TST to 19.74% would total tax revenue would increase by 3.3% to 12.4 billion BRL per year without decreasing revenues for any states. In this scenario, the tax burden for cheaper and premium cigarettes would be 75.7% and 72.3%, respectively. Consumption of cheaper cigarettes would decrease by 8.7% and consumption of premium cigarettes would decrease by 31.6%. The researchers also considered the effects of this tax increase on illicit trade and found that illicit consumption would not increase. Stronger control of the supply chain, on the other hand, would reduce illicit trade and raise the price of illicit cigarettes, encouraging some smokers to quit, while others return to the legal cigarette market. This would further increase revenue collection and especially benefit the poorest Brazilian states that currently have higher levels of illicit trade. The policy note concludes with recommendations for policy makers to improve the tobacco tax system and effectively reduce cigarette consumption while raising tax revenues.