SEASON'S GREETINGS!

As we look back on 2022, the Tobacconomics team is grateful for the continued support for our work and the commitment to effective tobacco taxation and control policies.

We wish you all a happy, healthy, and tobacco-free
holiday season!

2022 Highlights

2022 Think Tank Research Highlights

• Ark Foundation estimated that the introduction of a new low-tier brand resulted in a revenue gap between BDT 2.73 and 9.84 billion here.
• Institute of Health Economics (IHE) found that increasing the price of high-price cigarettes by 10% would increase consumption of low-price cigarettes by 2.6% here; showed that the small tax increase in the National Budget for FY 2022-23 did not keep pace with income growth or inflation here; and produced a guide on the Bangladesh Cigarette Tax Simulation Model here.
• Tobacconomics worked with partners to show that imposing a 65% excise tax and raising the minimum price of cigarettes would reduce prevalence while raising BDT 396 billion in tax revenue here.

• Center for Indonesia's Strategic Development Initiatives (CISDI)'s research showed that tobacco expenditure reduces spending on food and housing, especially in low-income households here.

• Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) found that children exposed to parental smoking are more likely to be stunted, especially if the mother smokes here.
• Social Policy and Development Centre (SPDC) worked with partners to show that a 30% increase in the excise tax rate would reduce the number of smokers while raising an additional PKR 27.4 billion here; estimated that the industry underreports domestic cigarette production by 4 billion cigarettes each year here; demonstrated that the initially proposed tax increase and the tax increase in Finance Bill 2022 were insufficient to reap substantial health or fiscal benefits; and showed that the implemented Tax Law Ordinance 2022 would successfully reduce consumption while raising an additional PKR 25.2 billion here.

• Universidade Católica Brasília (UCB) estimated that a 10% increase in the price of licit cigarettes would reduce consumption by 4.1% without an increase in the size of the illicit market here.

• Centro de Investigación Económica y Presupuestaria A.C. (CIEP) found that tobacco spending drove over 900,000 Mexicans into extreme poverty in 2020 here.

• Development Solutions Associates (DSA) found that more significant annual excise tax increases would decrease consumption while raising an additional EUR 77 million here and estimated that increasing cigarette prices by 10% would reduce consumption by 5% among youth here.

• University of Banja Luka (UBL) calculated the total economic burden of smoking to be between BAM 718.74 and 973.68 million here.

• Institute of Socioeconomic Analysis (ISEA) found that raising the excise tax by 50% would increase the available income in low-income households by between 1.6% and 1.8% here and demonstrated that smoking households spend less on essential commodities including food and housing here.

• Analytica's survey of farmers showed that tobacco growing is decreasing despite substantial subsidies while the trade deficit in agricultural and food products is growing here.

• Institute of Economic Sciences (IES) demonstrated that reallocating at least 80% of additional revenues from a significant tax increase would increase output, income, and employment here and estimated that an increase in the excise tax to 43.6% would result in a net gain of 2.9% for low-income households here.

Looking Ahead

• New Tobacconomics Toolkits on estimating the distributional and macroeconomic impacts of tobacco taxes as well as modeling and evaluating the effects of tobacco tax increases;
• New 3rd edition of the Tobacconomics Cigarette Tax Scorecard using new data;
• Additions to the 7th edition of the Tobacco Atlas, including new chapters, country fact sheets, a price app, and a costing tool;
• New research on the economics of alcohol taxation in low- and middle-income countries;
• And more impactful research from our think tank partners around the world!